- Uhwebo lweChina neLatin America kanye neCaribbean lukhule ngokuphindwe ka-26 phakathi kuka-2000 no-2020. Uhwebo lwe-LAC-China kulindeleke ukuthi lube ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili ngo-2035, lube ngaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-700 zamaRandi.
- I-US nezinye izimakethe zendabuko zivame ukulahlekelwa ukubamba iqhaza ku-LAC isiyonke yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle eminyakeni eyi-15 ezayo.Kungase kube inselele ngokuya nge-LAC ukuthi iqhubeke nokuthuthukisa iketango lentengo yayo futhi izuze emakethe yesifunda.
- Ukuhlela isimo kanye nezinqubomgomo ezintsha kungasiza ababambiqhaza balungiselele izimo ezishintshayo.
Ukukhula kweShayina njengesizinda esinamandla kwezohwebo kube nomthelela omkhulu kwezohwebo emhlabeni wonke eminyakeni engama-20 edlule, nemikhakha yezomnotho ebalulekile eLatin America naseCaribbean (LAC) phakathi kwabahlomuli abakhulu kakhulu.Phakathi kuka-2000 no-2020, ukuhweba kwe-China-LAC kukhule ngokuphindwe ka-26 kusuka ku-$12 billion kuya ku-$315 billion.
Ngeminyaka yo-2000, imfuno yamaShayina yaqhuba i-supercycle yempahla e-Latin America, yasiza ekudambiseni ukuchitheka kwesifunda kwenhlekelele yezimali yomhlaba yango-2008.Eminyakeni eyishumi kamuva, ukuhwebelana neChina kwahlala kuqinile naphezu kwalolu bhubhane, okuhlinzeka ngomthombo obalulekile wokukhula kwangaphandle kwe-LAC ehlaselwe ubhubhane, ehlanganisa u-30% wokufa kwabantu emhlabeni wonke ngenxa ye-COVID futhi yaba nokuncipha kwe-GDP ngo-7.4% ngo-2020. ngokomlando ubudlelwano bezohwebo obuqinile ne-United States kanye ne-Europe, ukukhula kwezomnotho kwe-China kunomthelela ekuchumeni kanye ne-geopolitics e-LAC nangale kwayo.
Lo mkhondo ohlaba umxhwele wokuhweba kwe-China-LAC eminyakeni engama-20 edlule nawo uphakamisa imibuzo ebalulekile emashumini amabili eminyaka ezayo: Yini esingayilindela kulobu budlelwano bezohwebo?Yiziphi izinkambiso ezivelayo ezingase zibe nomthelela kulokhu kuhwebelana futhi zingadlala kanjani esifundeni nasemhlabeni jikelele?Ukwakha phezu kwethuumbiko wakamuva wezimo zohwebo, nansi imininingwane emithathu ebalulekile yababambe iqhaza be-LAC.Lokhu okutholakele kuyasebenza nakwamanye abalingani abakhulu bezohwebo baseShayina kanye ne-LAC, okuhlanganisa ne-United States.
Yini esilindele ukuyibona?
Emgudwini wamanje, ukuhweba kwe-LAC-China kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-700 ngo-2035, okuphindwe kabili kunango-2020. I-China izosondela-futhi ingadlula ngisho ne-US njengomlingani ophezulu wezohwebo we-LAC.Ngo-2000, ukubamba iqhaza kwamaShayina kwaba ngaphansi kuka-2% wesamba sohwebo se-LAC.Ngo-2035, ingafinyelela ku-25%.
Izinombolo ezihlanganisiwe, nokho, zifihla umehluko omkhulu phakathi kwesifunda esihlukile.E-Mexico, ngokwesiko encike ekuhwebeni ne-US, isimo sethu esiyisisekelo silinganisela ukuthi ukubamba iqhaza kweShayina kungafinyelela cishe ku-15% wokuhwebelana kwezwe laseMexico.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iBrazil, Chile, kanye nePeru zingaba namaphesenti angaphezu kwama-40 okuthunyelwa kwawo ngaphandle okuya eChina.
Sekukonke, ubudlelwano obunempilo nabo bobabili abalingani babo abakhulu bezentengiselwano bungaba yizintshisekelo ezingcono kakhulu ze-LAC.Nakuba i-United States ingase ibone ukubamba iqhaza okuncishisiwe ekuhwebeni kwe-LAC okuhlobene ne-China, ubudlelwano be-hemispheric - ikakhulukazi lezo ezibandakanya ukuhlanganiswa okujulile kwe-supply chain - umshayeli obalulekile wokukhiqiza ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, ukutshalwa kwezimali kanye nokukhula kwe-value-added esifundeni.
I-China izophinde izuze kanjani indawo ekuhwebeni kwe-LAC?
Nakuba ukuhweba kuzomele kukhule kuzo zombili izinhlangothi, amandla amakhulu cishe azovela ekuthengisweni kwe-LAC okuvela e-China— kunokuba i-LAC ithumele e-China.
Ngasohlangothini lokungenisa kwe-LAC, sibona kusengaphambili ukuthi i-China izoqhudelana nakakhulu ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe, ngenxa yokwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe be-Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) obuhlanganisa i-5G kanye nobuhlakani bokwenziwa.Sekukonke, izinzuzo zokukhiqiza ezivela emisha nakweminye imithombo cishe zizodlula imiphumela yabasebenzi abanciphayo, kugcine ukuncintisana kokuthekelisa kwe-China.
Ngasohlangothini lokuthekelisa kwe-LAC, kungase kube noshintsho olubalulekile lwemboni.Imikhiqizo yezolimo ye-LAC ethunyelwa eChina imancane amathuba okuthi uqhubekengejubane lebonanza lezikhathi zamanje.Ngokuqinisekile, isifunda sizohlala sinokuncintisana kwezolimo.Kodwa izimakethe ngaphandle kwaseShayina, njenge-Afrika, zingafaka isandla emalini ephezulu yokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe.Lokhu kugqamisa ukubaluleka kwamazwe e-LAC ekuhloleni izimakethe zezindawo ezintsha, kanye nokwehlukanisa ukuthunyelwa kwazo eChina uqobo.
Ngokwebhalansi, ukukhula kokuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kungenzeka kudlule ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, okubangele ukushoda okuphezulu kwezohwebo kwe-LAC vis-à-vis China, nakuba kunomehluko omkhulu wezifunda.Nakuba inani elincane kakhulu lamazwe e-LAC okulindeleke ukuthi agcine imali yawo enqwabelene ne-China, isithombe esibanzi sikhomba ukushoda okukhulu kwezohwebo esifundeni.Ukwengeza, izinqubomgomo ezihambisanayo, ezingezona ezohwebo zizobaluleka ekunqumeni izinga kanye nemithelela yesibili yalokhu kushoda kwezohwebo ezweni ngalinye, kusukela ezimakethe zezemisebenzi kuya kunqubomgomo yangaphandle.
Yini ongayilindela ngokuhweba kwe-intra-LAC ngo-2035?
Njengoba lo bhubhane luphazamisa amaketanga okunikezwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke, izingcingo ezivela ku-LAC zokuthi zisuswe kabusha noma zisondele eduze nokuhlanganiswa kwesifunda okukhulu seziphinde zavela.Kodwa-ke, uma kubhekwa ukuqhubeka kwemikhuba ekhona, ikusasa alibukeki lithembisa ukuhweba kwe-intra-LAC.Nakuba kwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba, ikakhulukazi e-Asia, ukuhwebelana phakathi kwezifunda kuye kwanda ngokushesha kunohwebo lomhlaba wonke eminyakeni yamuva nje, amandla afanayo awakabonwa ku-LAC.
Uma ungekho umfutho omusha omkhulu wokuhlanganiswa kwesifunda, ukwehla okuphawulekayo kwezindleko zokuhweba ze-intra-LAC noma izinzuzo ezinkulu zokukhiqiza, i-LAC ingase ingakwazi ukuqhubeka ithuthukise amaketango ayo yenani futhi izuze emakethe yesifunda.Eqinisweni, ukuqagela kwethu kukhombisa ukuthi eminyakeni eyi-15 ezayo, ukuhwebelana kwe-intra-LAC kungaba ngaphansi kuka-15% wesamba sohwebo sesifunda, kwehle ngenani eliphakeme lama-20% ngaphambi kuka-2010.
Uma sibheka emuva kusukela esikhathini esizayo: Yini okufanele uyenze namuhla?
Eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo, iShayina izoba yisici esibaluleke kakhulu sombono wezomnotho we-LAC.Uhwebo lwe-LAC luvame ukuphendukela e-China nakakhulu - luthinta abanye abalingani bezohwebo kanye nohwebo lwangaphakathi kwesifunda uqobo.Sincoma:
Ukuhlela Isimo
Ukwakha izimo akukhona mayelana nokubikezela ikusasa, kodwa kusiza ababambiqhaza balungiselele amathuba ahlukahlukene.Ukuhlelela izimo ezishintshayo kuyaphuthuma ikakhulukazi uma kungase kube nesiyaluyalu ngaphambili: Ngokwesibonelo, amazwe e-LAC nezinkampani ezingase zithintwe izinguquko ezingaba khona ekubunjweni kokuthunyelwa kwe-LAC eChina.Inselele yokwenza imikhakha yokuthekelisa ikwazi ukuncintisana emakethe yaseShayina ivele yabonakala kakhulu ku-LAC.Kungokufanayo mayelana nesidingo sokuthuthukisa izimakethe ezintsha, ezihlukile zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-LAC okungokwesiko, njengezolimo kanye, ngokwandayo, nezinto zokwakha.
Ukukhiqiza Nokuncintisana
Ababambiqhaza be-LAC—kanye nabakhi bezinqubomgomo namabhizinisi ikakhulukazi—kufanele bacace bha mayelana nemithelela yokuhweba yokukhiqiza okuphansi okuthinta umkhakha wezokukhiqiza.Ngaphandle kokubhekana nezinkinga ezibukela phansi ukuncintisana kwezimboni esifundeni, ukuthunyelwa kwe-LAC e-US, esifundeni ngokwaso kanye nezinye izimakethe zendabuko kuzoqhubeka nokuhlupheka.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ababambiqhaza e-US bangenza kahle ngokuthatha izinyathelo zokuvuselela ukuhweba kwe-hemispherical, uma ukugcina ukubamba iqhaza kwe-US ekuhwebeni kwe-LAC kuthathwa njengomgomo okufanele ulandelwe.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-10-2021